Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 17.631488 21.300931 25.368300 30.186771 35.713794 41.829679 49.082345
2025-06-01 11.966350 16.638268 22.389009 29.879629 39.260910 50.499323 64.846271
2025-06-08 8.502800 13.288311 19.700491 28.690325 40.711338 55.958154 76.448417
2025-06-15 6.881816 11.853537 18.991180 29.593941 44.497863 64.220040 91.732316
2025-06-22 5.257914 9.997623 17.286002 28.734825 45.602832 68.813132 102.302491
2025-06-29 4.460143 9.226105 16.987596 29.746246 49.259910 76.941242 117.930376
2025-07-06 3.330571 7.621969 15.097989 28.043413 48.689403 78.976091 125.102881
2025-07-13 2.890559 7.157493 14.984104 29.072824 52.241057 87.058575 141.157331
2025-07-20 2.495955 6.685636 14.768507 29.870418 55.433185 94.723538 156.909049
2025-07-27 2.207919 6.365302 14.767046 31.000816 59.194349 103.393049 174.479379
2025-08-03 1.923986 5.983727 14.583653 31.765224 62.366567 111.269267 191.146628
2025-08-10 1.572975 5.349548 13.797382 31.327257 63.440787 115.859428 202.941926
2025-08-17 1.205111 4.590966 12.693850 30.298104 63.647488 119.456377 214.016281
2025-08-24 0.955705 4.067814 12.010014 30.017033 65.188620 125.381224 229.175362
2025-08-31 0.709220 3.442859 10.955507 28.824607 64.924072 128.230727 239.480555
2025-09-07 0.609413 3.253685 10.909980 29.731671 68.634605 137.981890 261.388732
2025-09-14 0.459000 2.804996 10.105127 28.869341 68.850886 141.670706 273.402162
2025-09-21 0.398846 2.680052 10.136925 29.884548 72.814002 152.109130 297.089292
2025-09-28 0.276533 2.203103 9.063347 28.175326 71.140172 152.366765 303.496298
2025-10-05 0.241087 2.118413 9.129560 29.208608 75.167298 163.133156 328.316853
2025-10-12 0.205941 2.012001 9.104933 30.009182 78.750177 173.224282 352.297063
2025-10-19 0.181201 1.949080 9.208169 31.143779 83.112869 184.937955 379.491508
2025-10-26 0.154253 1.851345 9.172932 31.911008 86.721543 195.370116 404.745000